Hochul Blames Trump For Millionaire Exodus

As wealthy New Yorkers head for lower-tax, freer states, Governor Kathy Hochul is blaming Trump and COVID instead of her own high-tax, heavy-regulation policies.

Story Snapshot

Millionaire moves out of New York spiked during COVID and are still higher than normal today.
New reports estimate New York has lost up to $11–12 billion a year in tax revenue as wealth leaves.
Governor Kathy Hochul says the Trump SALT cap and the pandemic are the main reasons rich residents left.
Independent research shows most high earners barely move, and tax changes alone explain only a small share.

Hochul blames Trump and COVID as millionaires exit New York

Governor Kathy Hochul has publicly argued that millionaire departures from New York were driven mainly by the Trump administration’s 2017 cap on the state and local tax deduction and by the COVID-19 pandemic. She has warned about losing people and income to places like Palm Beach and Florida, even as she opposes some new local tax hikes on the rich. At the same time, a study cited in recent reporting found New York’s share of households earning more than $1 million fell from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% by 2022. That drop suggests a shrinking base of top earners supporting New York’s large social spending plans.

New York’s own tax data show that millionaires change their address out of state more often than other taxpayers, with their out-migration rate peaking above 6% in 2020, the height of the pandemic, and settling around 2.5% in 2024. Separate estimates suggest the loss of wealthy residents’ income has already cut state tax collections by roughly $11–12 billion a year. Many of these high earners are moving to zero-income-tax states like Florida, trading New York’s high combined income tax burden, near 14.8% at the top, for lighter tax loads and warmer climates.

Research: tax flight is small but real at the edges

Academic studies on millionaire migration paint a more nuanced picture than political talking points from either side. One widely cited study of all United States million-dollar earners over thirteen years found that “tax flight is occurring, but only at the margins of statistical and socioeconomic significance.” In normal years, only about 2.4% of millionaires change their state of residence, far less than middle-class movers, and most high earners who leave New York move to other high-tax states like New Jersey, Connecticut, or California. That means taxes are not the only factor, but they do matter at the edges, especially when combined with cost of living, crime, and quality-of-life issues.

Progressive groups such as the Fiscal Policy Institute use this research to argue that “tax flight” is mostly a myth and that raising income taxes on top earners does not trigger mass departures. They point to state tax hikes in 2017 and 2021 that did not produce a clear surge in millionaire out-migration and, in some periods, coincided with a net gain of high-income households and higher revenue. Economists who support higher taxes say a one-percentage-point increase in millionaire tax rates would cause only a tiny number of wealthy residents to move, and that any losses can be offset by new high earners moving in. That evidence pushes back on claims that every tax hike will empty New York overnight.

Wealth flight, high taxes, and the fight over New York’s future

Despite reassurances from some researchers, other analyses and media reports highlight serious fiscal risks if New York continues to lose wealthy residents while keeping high tax rates and expansive spending. One recent study reported by outlets like The Center Square and the New York Post warned that New York is “bleeding millionaires,” with the drop in rich taxpayers causing nearly $11 billion in annual tax losses. Another analysis noted that New York City lost about $9 billion of income to Miami and Palm Beach over five years, driven by the pandemic, high living costs, and concerns over quality of life in the city. Conservatives argue this is a real warning sign for a state already known for heavy taxes, strict regulations, and generous social programs.

New York's share of millionaires dropped 8.7% in just over a decade, and Hochul's excuse is to blame everyone but herself.

When they leave, you pay higher taxes to make up the difference.

Kathy Hochul made us the most overtaxed state in America.

I'll fix what she broke and… pic.twitter.com/oQvLNZTFzd

— Bruce Blakeman (@NassauExec) July 17, 2026

Kathy Hochul has responded by both insisting taxes are not the main driver of migration and, at times, begging millionaires to come back from Florida to keep funding New York’s social safety net. Her message clashes with earlier comments where she suggested “good riddance” to those leaving, and it frustrates residents who feel that long-standing progressive policies made the state less safe, less affordable, and less free. For many conservatives, the pattern is clear: when government treats productive citizens as piggy banks, they look for friendlier states, and even a small share leaving can strain budgets for schools, public safety, and basic services. The debate over millionaire migration is really a debate over what kind of state New York wants to be—and whether leaders will take responsibility for the consequences of high taxes, heavy spending, and culture-war priorities that push wealth and families elsewhere.